It’s been widely publicized over the past week that U.S. home prices have just surpassed record highs set a decade ago. Details can be read in an article published by HousingWire, along with data collected by Case-Shiller, through the following links: HousingWire, Case-Shiller.
Reading past the headlines of articles on the subject one can see that the new record highs are highly dependent on the area of the country you live in, and when the effects of inflation are factored in home prices are relatively still about 20% below peak.
The 2016 median home price for the Santa Barbara area currently stands at $1.2M, which is a 4% increase over last year. In 2005 the Santa Barbara area real estate market experienced its still standing record median home price high of $1.275M.
If median home price gains continue at their current pace then Santa Barbara won’t surpass its previous record level until mid-2018, giving local buyers the opportunity to capitalize on lower prices and interest rates than will likely be seen in the future.
Thanks to everyone for sending in your real estate inquiries. I appreciated the opportunity to assist you throughout this holiday season and eventful upcoming year.
Following are the current YTD and mid-Q4 housing market stats for Santa Barbara and surrounding areas. Condos have decreased in every category except for median price, and houses have had increased in inventory, number under contract (mid-Q4), number sold (mid-Q4), and median price.
YTD – Percentage Change Over Last Year
Condos: 10% decrease in number of listings, 23% decrease in pending sales, 24% decrease in number sold, 16% decrease in sold volume, 7% increase in median price from $595,000 to $640,000.
Houses: 5% increase in number of listings, 11% decrease in pending sales, 6% decrease in number sold, 13% decrease in sold volume, 3% increase in median price from $1.155M to $1.2M.
Mid-Q4 – Percentage Change Over Last Year
Condos: 41% decrease in new listings, 15% decrease in pending sales, 12% decrease in number sold, 20% decrease in sold volume, 5% increase in median price from $617,500 to $649,000.
Houses: 22% increase in new listings, 22% increase in pending sales, 4% increase in number sold, 19% decrease in sold volume, 5% increase in median price from $1.032M to $1.09M.
It will be interesting to see how year-end numbers finish up for Santa Barbara’s real estate market. Many home buyers have come off the fence in the past month and a half, prompted by new inventory and a previous lack of buyer competition for available properties. I look forward to keeping you posted with the latest news and appreciate your inquiries.
With the big rains that were expected for Santa Barbara last season and didn’t happen the city is preparing to tap into new water sources outside of their usual supply from Lake Cachuma, state water, ground water, local streams and reservoirs, and recycled water.
First on the list is the new Charles E. Meyer Desalination Facility, located to the east of Santa Barbara’s Funk Zone at 525 E. Yanonali Street, which is expected to fill about 30% (3,125 acre-feet per year) of Santa Barbara’s demand for water. The facility was originally targeted to open this month but due to power supply corrections and added environmental safety elements is now scheduled to open in January 2017 at an extra cost of $4 million.
For five other Santa Barbara County water agencies (Carpinteria, Guadalupe, Santa Maria, Solvang and the Santa Ynez River Water Conservation District) a plan is pending to get over 12,000 acre-feet per year back from their suspended amount of State Water Project deliveries, dating back to the early 1980’s. The plan is waiting approval from the Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors on Nov. 1st. These agencies could in turn sell water to the Montecito Water District and Goleta Water District just as Santa Maria has done in the recent past.
Santa Barbara will also explore new water purchases from out of the area next year should the drought weather pattern continue in Southern California and wet winter pattern continue to the north. Residents of Santa Barbara are encouraged to stay aware of their water usage and conserve as much as possible during the drought. References on water conservation and awareness are available at www.santabarbaraca.gov/gov/depts/pw/resources/conservation/ and http://www.waterwisesb.org/.
The fall season and month of October is a great time to be in Santa Barbara and surrounding communities. Along with plenty of beautiful real estate to look at there are many events, festivals, and some of the best weather of the year to enjoy. Following are several activities taking place. To experience some of the best real estate currently available in the area simply contact John@SearchSantaBarbara.com. Your inquiries and touring requests are appreciated!
Oct. 7 – Teacher’s Fund Golf Tournament & Party (sponsored by Village Properties), Glen Annie Golf Course, 12pm & 5pm
Oct. 7-10 – Celebration of Harvest Festival & Grand Tasting, Tasting Rooms throughout Santa Barbara Wine County & Old Mission Santa Ines in Solvang, 11am & 12pm
Oct. 7-9 – California Avocado Festival, Linden Avenue, Friday 1-10pm, Saturday 10am-10pm & Sunday 10am-6pm
Oct. 15 – Santa Barbara Harbor & Seafood Festival, Santa Barbara Harbor, 10am-5pm
Oct. 15 – Santa Barbara Beer Festival, Elings Park, 12–4pm
Oct. 20 – Santa Barbara Best Fest, Carriage Museum at 129 Castillo Street, 5:30-9pm
Oct. 29 – Fall Family Festival, Cliff Drive Care Center, 11am-2pm
Nov. 5 – Comedy & Magic Festival, Plaza Playhouse Theater at 4916 Carpinteria Avenue, 7pm
Available homes and condos for sale in the Santa Barbara area has risen substantially this year with a 33% increase over the same time last year. The last time the housing supply in Santa Barbara was this high was in 2011. The big difference between now and 2011 is the “months supply of inventory” or how long it would take the available inventory of properties to sell at the given pace of sales. You can easily calculate this by taking the number of properties on the market and dividing by the number of sales over the previous month. In 2011 there were 779 homes and condos on the market and 120 sales from August to September, which calculates to a 6.5 months supply of inventory. This year there are 662 homes and condos on the market with 274 sales over the past month, which calculates to a much lower 2.4 months supply of inventory.
The healthy amount of inventory is certainly nice for buyers and the healthy number of sales for sellers. Purely by the current numbers one can confidently say that it’s a good time to buy or sell. It’s not often with the continual high demand and low supply of housing in the Santa Barbara area that you see such a balance. I appreciate any feedback or inquires you have and thank you for allowing me to assist with any of your current real estate needs whether you’re looking to buy or sell.
Since 2010 U.S. housing starts have been on the increase, however are still well below most non-recession periods in U.S. history. Higher cost of construction, closely assessed risk factors and less financing available for developers are all part of the current equation. In addition, new residences cost home buyers more per square foot than existing properties, approximately a 23.8% difference according to data recently collected by the National Association of Realtors. To read the full article click here.
In Santa Barbara affordability is certainly a factor. With the median resale home price reaching $1.14M in August many buyers are already at their maximum price point when purchasing an existing residence, where any new home purchase in the same size range would put them over budget.
The Knoll, Santa Barbara area’s newest housing development off N. Patterson Road has just reduced their prices by $300,000. Now priced at $2.095M and $2.15M these residences are 4,150 sq.ft., costing $500 to $520/sq.ft.
Sevilla & Alma Del Pueblo, both developed in prime Santa Barbara downtown locations, have also experienced the need for recent price cuts with many units still available today.
The Village at Los Carneros are offering new condos and homes priced more toward entry level buyers and are selling much quicker than higher end developments in and around Santa Barbara. From $385 to $470/sq.ft. with sizes ranging from 1,014 to 2,417 sq.ft., and prices from $475,990 to $1,024,990.
The Village at Los Carneros – 6720 S, Calle Koral Road #209 – 1 bed/1.5 bath – $530,990
Sevilla – 401 Chapala Street #107 – 1 bed/1.5 bath – $1.175M
The Knoll – 5343 Plunkett Lane – 4 bed/4.5 bath – $2.095M
I appreciate your inquiries on both new and resale properties in the area, and look forward to keeping you posted on all new developments!
There have been only five sales in the Santa Barbara real estate market so far this year for homes over $10M, a small number when compared with the eleven that sold in the same period last year. Sale dollar volume has decreased a substantial 51% for this elite price range so far in 2016. Sale volume decreases are also being experienced for homes in lesser price ranges, but not to the same extent. Year-to-date there’s been a 15% sale volume decrease for homes in the $4M to $10M range, a 13% decrease for homes in the $2M to $4M range, and a 7% decrease for homes priced under $2M in the Santa Barbara area.
1592 E. Mountain Drive, Montecito. Sold for $11.45M in 2016. Previously sold for $15M in 2006.
A recently published article in the Denver Post, “Aspen real estate in first-ever sustained nosedive”, states that after record sales in 2015, sale volume this year is down 42% for Aspen’s Pitkin County. It also states that sales of area homes in the elite $10M plus price range are down 60% and that the luxury market across the country is slowed, from Manhattan to Palm Beach. Government and economic uncertainty, fears, and imbalances are sited as the main contributors of the recent upper-end slowdown.
It will be interesting to see what direction the ultra-luxury real estate market heads in the rest of the year. I look forward to your questions, inquiries and feedback on this and any other price ranges of interest.